DOI: 10.36347/sjebm.2018.v05i03.009

Pages: 200-207

The current main stream researches on state fragility are mostly focusing on the social, political, ecological and economic aspects. However, as one of the most critical issues on this planet, climate change now is proposed may also play an essential role in the nation’s structure stability. To examine the influence that climate factor has on state fragility will be our subject in this paper. According to the concept of fragile state, we propose National Structural Stability (NSS) to comprehensively describe a country’s fragility. We then introduce triple-layer NSS indicator system with the assistance of Principle Component Analysis (PCA). The system contains 17 tertiary indicators that pertain to several secondary aspects, including: climate, social, economic, ecological and political. Subsequently, we deploy Entropy Weight Method (EWM) to get the weight of indicators. Meanwhile, we set standard of state stability by K-Means Algorithm. Finally, we deliver the NSS Evaluation Model and select Democratic Republic of Congo as our practice subject. The results show a decline of evaluation score when the climate factor enabled, which proves that climate will indeed exacerbate the country’s fragility. Our model is fairly robust to parameter changes, which means that minor changes in parameters do not cause significant changes in results.