DOI: 10.36347/sjams.2024.v12i05.023

Pages: 648-654

The acute crisis with the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the novel coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is the largest biomedical catastrophe of our lifetimes. The COVID-19 inpatient risk calculator (CIRC) scoring system was used to predict mortality in hospitalized patients so that it has applications in future outbreaks of the disease. Methods: The retrospective study included 200 adult patients, over the age of 18 years, who were admitted in a tertiary care center. Clinical and laboratory features were collected from the medical records and entered into the COVID-19 inpatient risk calculator. Predictability of the CIRC scoring system was analyzed using linear regression analysis. Result: There was a statistically significant difference between the means of the CIRC scores on days 2, 4 and 7 of admission, in subjects with different outcomes. The values of D-dimer, C-reactive protein and ferritin in the subjects showed a statistically significant association with the respective CIRC scores on days 2, 4 and 7. The areas under the curve for days 2, 4 and 7 were all greater than 0.9, indicating the high predictability of the CIRC scoring system, indicating that the higher is the CIRC score, higher is the possibility of mortality. Conclusion: In this large-scale retrospective study of COVID-19 patients in a tertiary care setting, we confirm the high predictive value of the CIRC scoring system in assessing the possible progression of the infection into severe disease and mortality. The application of CIRC scores may be confidently used in determining the probability of the patient progressing into severe disease and or death, within 7 days of arrival to the hospital.