DOI: https://doi.org/10.36347/sajb.2025.v13i06.010

Pages: 728-737

Climate change is having an impact on agricultural ecosystems, and can significantly alter the conditions required to grow many crops, including maize. To assess the impact of these changes, the use of crop models coupled with remote sensing represents a promising approach to help forecast water requirements and crop yields. In this study, vegetation indices (NDVI) derived from the Copernicus-Sentinel 2 satellite were coupled to future climate data (2026-2050) in the AQUACROP model to simulate the yield and water requirement of maize crops under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios on silty-clay, silty-sandy and silty-clay-sandy soils. The results show that water requirements increase by 11.10% under RCP 4.5 and 13.92% under RCP 8.5, over the future period. As for yields, they will fall by 13% under the RCP 4.5 scenario and by 17% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. As a result, maize yields are set to fall significantly by 2050, particularly in the most pessimistic scenario, RCP 8.5.