DOI: 10.21276/sjpms.2018.5.4.7

Pages: 266-274

The study modeling metrological data using vector autoregressive focuses on analyzing of monthly rainfall and temperature over a selected state in Southern Nigeria, covering a period of 1972 – 2011. One of the key objectives of every study of meteorological parameters is to determine the fluctuations and trend over the years and area of study. The research aims at providing quantitative analysis of the dynamics on meteorological parameters the rainfall and temperature in Niger Delta. This study utilizes secondary data obtained from the meteorological station. The sample covers monthly data from 1972 - 2011. The study employed the newly developed multivariate time series estimation technique via Vector Autoregressive modeling to model the rainfall and temperature over the period of study. The study on the evaluation of rainfall and temperature trends in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria reveals some facts about the meteorological parameter of selected stations in Niger Delta for the period under investigation. The research obtained a stable model for the vector autoregressive for the two meteorological parameters. The study has examined recent trends and fluctuations of annual rainfall and temperature of southern Nigeria between 1972 to 2011. The predicted value from the modeled data suggests continues increase in amount of monthly rainfall and temperature with their confidence interval.