DOI: 10.21276/sjpms.2019.6.3.2

Pages: 29-34

In this paper, modeling and forecasting typhoid mortality rate using ARIMA models was examined. Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was employed to analyze typhoid mortality rate in Delta State. The study intended mainly to forecast the typhoid mortality rate for the coming years. Series of tentative models were developed to forecast the mortality rate, but based on minimum AIC and BIC values and after the estimation of parameters and series of diagnostic test were performed, ARIMA(0,1,0) model was proved to be the best model for forecasting after satisfying the model assumptions. The forecasted results revealed a decreasing pattern of typhoid mortality rate 2019 to 2022.