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Scholars Journal of Physics, Mathematics and Statistics | Volume-7 | Issue-10
Application of Mathematical Modelling on the Spread of Chicken Pox Disease (A Case Study of Nayinawa Clinic Damaturu, Yobe State)
Umar Yusuf Madaki, Habiba Adamu Manu, Alhaji Abdullahi Gwani, Edeghagba Eghosa Elijah
Published: Oct. 11, 2020 | 149 87
DOI: 10.36347/sjpms.2020.v07i10.004
Pages: 260-271
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Abstract
Chickenpox was declared an emergency in Nigeria and strategies for the control of chickenpox in Nigeria were adopted to reduce its prevalence to a level at which the disease will no longer constitute public health problems. In this work, we presented a deterministic (SEIR susceptible, expose/latently infected, infectious and recovered) model incorporating the method of control adopted by national chickenpox and leprosy control program. We established the disease free and the endemic equilibrium states and carried out the stability analysis of the disease. Free and the equilibrium state of the model to have an insight into the dynamics of the model. We found out that the disease free equilibrium state is stable. The numerical results showed that it would be very difficult to completely eradicate chickenpox from Damaturu-Yobe and the country Nigeria at large.