DOI: 10.36347/sjams.2015.v03i08.053

Pages: 3013-3019

Our previous studies presented significant increases in plasma concentrations of Interleukin-6 (IL-6), Interleukin-8 (IL-8) and Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha (TNF-α) as early as before the twenty-fourth hour after the clinical manifestation of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). The early changes in pro-inflammatory cytokines give serious reasons to suppose that inflammatory process participates directly in the disease initiating mechanisms. In this sense, it is quite appropriate to seek in these changes a predictive value for PAF manifestation. IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-α were studied in 51 patients (26 men, 25 women; mean age 59.84±1.60 years) with PAF (time of the occurrence<48 hours) and 52 controls (26 men, 26 women; mean age 59.50±1.46 years) matched by gender, age and comorbidities. In the present study we used a logistic regression model with a single explanatory variable and a multivariable logistic model to determine the prognostic value of the indicators. The logistic regression model with a single explanatory variable showed that IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-α were statistically significant indicators of the clinical manifestations of PAF (p<0.001; p=0.045; p=0.014, respectively). With the increase in their values, the probability of developing the disease also increased(Bi=0.33 >0; Bi=0.34 >0; Bi=0.44 >0, respectively). The multivariate logistic model confirmed the results (p=0.017; p=0.049; p=0.012, respectively). Plasma concentrations of IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-α provide prognostic information about the clinical manifestation of PAF. They could be used in the overall clinical risk assessment, which in turn would affect the prophylactic and therapeutic approach to the disease.