DOI: 10.36347/sajb.2015.v03i04.005

Pages: 348-354

Climate change has been identified as one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss across the globe as it results in alteration of the species habitats. This study investigated the impacts of climate change on a generalist Myosorex varius and its genetic lineages endemic to South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. The work was based on the changes in climatic variables on the distribution of this species and its genetic lineages; southern and northern lineages in space and time. The current and future distributions of this species and its genetic lineages were determined by Ecological niche modelling using Maxent. Eight bioclimatic variables for current and future projected scenarios by the year 2070 together with locality data from Museums and publications were used to model the current and future distributions. Equal sensitivity and specificity threshold applied to get percentage decrease or increase in range. The current and the future distributions for this species and the lineages were compared to determine the range shifts, extinction risk and range differences. The model results for range shifts revealed that M. varius will suffer greater contractions (64.5%) while the northern and southern genetic lineages will suffer minimal (28.4% and 18.4%) range contractions respectively. Myosorex varius showed greatest contraction of suitable habitats, consequently, it will experience the highest risk of extinction as a result of global warming associated with climate change by the year 2070. This reveals that climate change is the main factor that affects the distributions of this species and its lineages in South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland.