DOI: 10.36347/sjpms.2021.v08i08.002

Pages: 133-142

In this study, the distribution of the number of goals in the football matches played in the Spanish La Liga was examined, and the probabilities of the number of goals of the teams were calculated according to the appropriate probability distribution. Weekly goal numbers were recorded for a period including 4 seasons between the 2017-2018 season and the 2020-2021 season. The number of goals of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, which are among the most successful teams in La Liga, was analyzed during the 4 seasons in question. Using the chi-square test, it became clear that the number of team goals corresponded to the Poisson distribution. Poisson distribution λ parameter values were calculated as 1.934, 2.368 and 1.52, respectively, according to the number of goals of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid teams. According to the parameter λ calculated, the probabilities of the goals scored by the teams were determined. It was concluded that the Poisson probability distribution is a suitable distribution for estimating the number of goals and probabilities in football matches.